One is a multiple-time world champion, the other is a media personality turned professional boxer. Step back to the start of the current decade, and the idea of Anthony Joshua, once the darling of the British boxing world, fighting a YouTuber would have been deemed preposterous.
A slide down the heavyweight rankings – as well as some high-profile losses, most recently a surprise knockout by Daniel Dubois in September 2024 – has seen Joshua reach the stage where he fights the infamous Jake Paul. The Miami showpiece bout looks set to take place this year, so what do the bookmakers predict? Can Joshua finally be the one to put Jake Paul down in the way millions want? Or can Paul – who has, to his credit, built a decent career as a pro boxer – surprise the world?
The bookies have Joshua as the obvious favourite, with Bet365 having Joshua as the 1/11 favourite, while BetVictor have him at 1/16. Even a draw seems a wild concept, with 20/1 odds on both bookies for a draw. Paul, meanwhile, is the clear underdog, at 13/2 and 8/1, respectively.
The Tale Of The Tape
With a 12-1 professional record, Jake Paul has only lost one match in his career – to the reality TV star brother of Tyson Fury, Tommy Fury. His most recent victories include a match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and Mike Tyson. The Tyson fight in particular brought negative attention to the spectacle of Paul’s fights, taking on a clearly injured legend of the sport who is in his fifties.
Still, at least Paul – regardless of the standard, stature, or age of his opponents – is on a win streak. Joshua, meanwhile, lost his last fight – the aforementioned knockout by Dubois. With over a year of ring rust, Joshua will need to come out on top here to try to re-establish his reputation as a top-level boxer.
If the proposed match-up with Tyson Fury is ever to happen, he needs to win here and win well. Since back-to-back defeats to Oleksandr Usyk in 2021 and 2022, Joshua has fought a series of meandering opponents. Wins against the likes of Robert Helenius and Otto Wallin sound good on paper, but his most recent win was a quick knockout of MMA fighter Francis Ngannou.
For Joshua, there really is nothing more important for his career prospects than a complete domination and knockout of Paul. Is that likely, though?
Anthony Joshua KO: What Are The Odds?
The most expected decision in this fight is that Joshua wins hands down. Bet365 have him as a 1/4 favourite to win by KO, TKO, or disqualification; BetVictor prices the same result at 1/6.
Such is the expectation, even a decision victory for Joshua came in at 9/2 and 11/2, respectively. Paul, meanwhile, is a 12/1 and 11/1 underdog to secure a KO, showing just how unlikely it is on the bookmaker’s end that Paul manages to do anything other than bolster his career prize money.
It’s almost impossible to imagine anything other than a Joshua victory, but Paul is a crafty operator in how he picks and chooses his fights. This is the first time in his career he’s fought a professional former champion who’s still within a realistic fighting age, though; is this finally going to be a step too far for the American? According to the bookies, almost certainly.